St. Augustine Market Report-St Augustine Beach and Crescent Beach Florida

7/20/2010  Business is still outstanding  I am still hesitant to call this a rebound when it has actually been nothing short of remarkable.  We have been waiting for the market to crash again just like the economists say the country could collapse financially, just like the stockmarket takes a nose dive every two weeks or so only to crawl back to the mid ten thousands.  I am still scared of the liberals in Washington.  Party affiliation is no factor here.  They all scare me but the real estate market keeps trying to stand up and it is a direct result of baby boomers like me saying to themselves let's get on with life, let's go to the beach, let's buy that place now before we're too old to walk down on the beach, smell the seaside air, hear the roar of the surf, see the sunrises and sunsets.  Only on Florida's east coast can you watch the sun rise over the ocean then set on a flat horizon.  Okay, the keys in south Florida but that still counts as Atlantic I don't know where the dividing line is down there but it works.  The boomers are coming, they are looking, they are buying they are enjoyhing life at the beach.  I think this is the tip of the boomer ice berg and it is unstoppable.  Now if they will only start voting as smart as they have been buying we can bail this country out too.  Enough nutcakes in Washington.  I think every ballot oughta have choices like:  john brown, jean brown or nobody.....nobody would mean just that, nobody gets the seat till the next election.  RT

7/2/2010  Somebody left the gate open!  First of all read my posting below on 6/22 then come back..............okay, if anybody doubts my prognostications simply look at my history here.  The last weekend of June us little guys in our itty bitty office put 5 count'em 5 condos under contract!  Lookers turned into buyers.  We have half a dozen new prospects coming to town in the next couple of weeks.  Ocean Village Club condominiums, now get this...4 months ago there were 35 2/2 units for sale.  Today 5 for sale, that's it.  We targeted OVC four months ago as the best buy for the money under 300K on the island.  We got a big jump on the market and sold 5 over the past few months.  By the time other brokers figured it out we had already picked off all the steals for clients.  Today there are a couple of good buys in the Q building and we think they will go too.  Summerhouse, I have been harping the prices are finally into the mid 200s for a nice 2/2 with great ocean views, those are starting to move.  We sold one this week.  I have been railing about Ocean Sunrise and two short sale units in there.  Both sold this week.  What's going on?  You may remember Ronnie predicted immediately after the oil spill that it would be a boon for Florida's East Coast at the gulf's expense.  I predicted rentals would explode, I predicted sales here would jump big time, I predicted the North Florida Atlantic coast would benefit big time economically from the gulf oil spill.  We do not take glee with other people's disasters, I was simply making a prediction and it was way before anybody nationally weighed in.  It was an easy prediction, I am good at it.  Here we are three months later and all my predictions have come to pass. All condos for rent on the island are fully booked thru mid August, sales are crazy.   I also predict we will all pay big time for the spill but at least we can afford it cause business and sales in St Augustine are booming!!!!

Sitting on cash in your brokerage account?  Watching your stocks take a dive into the abyss?  I have been telling you for a year now you can still buy a beach condo and net 2-4% on the cost if you put it for rent and pick the right place at the right price.  And that is our job, we do it every day and it can be done. That is double to four times the return on your money you're getting right now. Prices are still flat but I am starting to smell the graph starting to rise slowly but rising.  Sure I make money when you buy, sure I make money when you sell.  Our clients are happy to pay us for our services....we're worth it.  RT

Thank you Janet, Mark, Jerry, Bill, Susan we appreciate you coming to us! 

6/22/2010  Lookers, lookers, lookers....Just as the one who knows all sees all,  well in advance predicted several months ago when the oil thing first started, wayyyy before anybody even thought about gulf coast vacationers looking elsewhere to go this summer...I predicted we would prosper from our western friend's woes.  It has come to pass.  The entire beach is 100% booked with renters from now until Labor Day.  Nothing available.  Bad for them , good for us.  A by product of being loaded this summer with vacationers is we have a whole new flock of lookers who have come here for the first time.  All the agents still in business are being run ragged 14 hours a day.  Here's the problem as I see it right now.  Many sellers perceive this as a boom in prices....wrong again.  It is a boom in activity but the buyers are still expecting prices to be flat not going up.  They are not even looking at properties they perceive to be over priced.  Many sellers say "well, tell them to make an offer"  they won't do it.  They are going straight at the lowest priced unit in each complex.  Example:  Ocean Village Club.  Two months ago there were 34 units for sale, today there are only 15 and 50% of those are one bedroom units.  What sold?  Units priced in the middle one hundreds and middle 200s.  What's left?  Not much, a few units in the best building the Q building but they are priced in the upper 200s and buyers want one in the middle 200s, there's a unit in the F building in the upper 100s they want one in the middle 100s just like what sold last month.  So we have a standoff.  Same thing at Barefoot Trace 6 units have sold from a price range of 360K-420K this year.  Four units are currently for sale and buyers want that same price range...the sellers want middle 400s...stalemate again.  To prove my point, a BFT unit came up for sale at $395,000 three weeks ago, it sold in 6 days and had 3 offers on it come in the same day!  Those buyers looked at the others for sale but decided to wait and see if another comes for sale in the upper 3s...maybe it will maybe it won't.  Summerhouse a couple of units sold in the lower to mid 200s but now they are priced in the upper 200s...no deals now like those that sold so, stalemate.  We have been studying the market real hard, we have half a dozen active clients looking right now and there are a couple of really good buys out there and we have a couple of our own.  Call us if you want the inside scoop.  904-471-9696   Here is what IS HAPPENING  There are buyers out there waiting like a string of birds on the wire.  Waiting for those seeds to fall off the stalk, when one sees that seed, they all see it and they all flap to find it.  First one there gets the seed ... same with the buyers and the condo, when a deal pops up they all swoop first one there gets it, then they all fly back up on the wire and wait for another deal.  We just can't get them to cross that line of believing prices are going up while sellers believe prices are going to rise.  Another funny thing, when we do get a deal agreed to the sellers start thinking they sold too low because "other people are asking more"  and we try to explain to them "other people" didn't get the sale, simple as that.  Will this change?  Don't know, only time knows and time ain't talkin right now.  I also think many owners are cleaning house with rentals this summer and the heat is off.  Selling owners will be a little softer in October but then again, buyers aren't in the mood come October.  ALL THIS BEING SAID...We are still having a helluva year!  I fully expect to have closed at least 10 million in sales this year, a good year by any measure.  Stay tuned boys and girls, we'll be back same time same station next week when it will once again be...Howdy Ronnie Tiiiiime!!!!  beep beep

Thank you Keith and Donna, we appreciate you sticking with us and getting a great deal when it came up, you too Rick and Susan we thank you very much.  Beth keep your fingers crossed, closing is tomorrow on your deal.  RT

6/14/2010  Offers Offers Offers....but no deals.  We are in the middle of the summer stalemate that happened last year...same thing.  Getting offers left and right on properties, writing offers on other listings left and right but nobody taking the offers.  Same thing last year, sellers thinking the market was looking up because of so much activity.  Wrong.  Last year, sellers got on their high horses and six months later called back saying is that guy still around that wanted to buy my property?  No he isn't, he got his ball and bat and went home.  Game over.  We wrote 3 offers over the last 5 days all went nowhere and all three were good ones relative to values.  I talked to another agent who told me this morning she wrote 5 in the last 2 weeks and all crashed before they ever took off.  We have three offers in house still working back and forth but it looks like a stalemate in all three cases right now.

Best deals right now?  We have a Sand Dollar top floor that is super nice and is rented so much we can't even show it.  It is the lowest priced upper floor unit in all of the four Sand Dollar buildings.  Unit 503 see the pictures and views under "our listings"  In the lower priced categories we have a really nice ground floor corner 1/1 at Ocean Village Club for less than 150...a lot less M-17 take a look at that one too.

The oil spill:  I have not criticized Obama and the administration at all during this debacle he can't swim down there and plug the hole with leaves as I have suggested be done.  BUT now I hear that other countries 5 weeks ago offered the administration immediate help with huge "oil sweeper ships" that vaccuum up the water and remove the oil and spit the water back out...Norway supposedly offered three of them that could handle millions of gallons a day and for some reason our dumbassed administration turned them down?  Say it ain't so mr president say it ain't so.  Those people spill oil all the time they have the stuff to clean it up what on earth is the administration thinking?  I want to hear their excuse....betcha they never answer the question cause the newspapers and TV ain't gonna ask.  This all came out in European newspapers recently and has been ignored apparently by our press....why is it being ignored?  Now Obama wants 50 billion for some stimulus something...we don't have any more monopoly money mr president....you pissed away 1000  billion earlier this year on nothing not to mention what we'll need for the Gulf thing...where you gonna get that?  This administration reminds me of the guy who gets his paycheck on Friday and runs down to the 7-11 and gets a case of beer, a carton of weeds and buys a fistfull of scratch tickets.  Never mind he needs a new car, his kids need clothes and if he gets sick he has no money in the bank to live on.  Same thing.  Obama now wants more scratch tickets.... on credit...pay you next week if I don't win!  Somebody's gotta do somethin......ONE FINAL QUESTION PLEASE:   All the democrats and comedians made fun of Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney the past presidential election, especially Joe Biden....why doesn't the administration put VP Biden in charge of the oil crisis?  I suspect if Cheney were appointed to take care of it day one,  it would be over by now or would certainly never gotten out of hand like it is now. Sarah would probably have grabbed the bull by the horns too..... Go ahead and put Joe in charge......go ahead mr president you obviously have nobody else in the administration with ten cents worth of brains. 

The views and truths here are simply opinions expressed by Ronnie Tumlin and do not reflect the opinions of management or anybody else with good sense around here.

6/6/2010  Ronnie Tumlin reveals the solution to plugging the oil well spill .....believe it or not I do have a minor in geology, took the courses in college cause they were interesting and the professors weren't jackasses...yeah, they were easy too all you had to know was a few words, uplift, erosion, igneous, metamorphic, sedimentary and stuff like that.  Anyway, while working on the house this weekend, I came up with a brilliant solution to plugging the damned pipe.  Leaves.  Leaves in my rain gutters are tougher than any oil well guaranteed.  All BP has to do is go get a couple of bushels of leaves, mix'em up with sand and blow'em in that hole...ain't nuttin getting out.  Leak Solved.  Simple as that. 

Best deal this week:  we just got a couple of what we call "bank jobs"  we have a 3/2 ground floor at Ocean Sunrise that is absoluely beyond description in finish....spectacular remodeling job from top to bottom...wayyyy above good.  Not much of a view but the walkway to the beach is right there at your ground floor patio out your sliders on the oceanside.  1800 sq feet.  Exceptional furniture all included. High dollar stuff.  Bank has approved the short sale and a slam dunk in less than 30 days at $399,000 totally furnished ready to go.  Even less may buy it call us and let's talk.  Only catch is rentals, monthly rentals only but this unit will take in close to 25,000 this year in rent.  Ocean Sunrise 105 take a look at the pictures under our listings.  Buyer backed out after bank approved the short sale, you can slide right in there.  Can be bought well below appraisal.  Hire anybody you want to prove it and if it's not so, Ronnie will pay for the appraisal.  Okay, I am attaching a string...gotta be local appraiser and certified but there are lots of'em.  Think I'm bluffing?  try me.

Another great "bank job" has already come under the ownership of a local bank that has hired us to dispose of a rather special piece of property.  An oceanfront 2/2 at nearly 1500 square feet and it is a corner unit with extra windows .  Updated kitchen and baths.  new oceanside sliders and windows, no furniture.  A Deal?  You betcha, 3rd floor fantastic views, a little touch up here and there with a brush and you're ready to go.  Bank's price:  $395,000  guaranteed answer on an offer from the bank in 2 business days.  Barefoot Trace 311  Take a look on the first page of "our listings" too.  This asking price is well under anything else for sale in the building and it is 3rd floor!  Elevator service, parking garage, heated oceanfront pool and much much more. Call Ronnie on this one  904-501-1010 or zip me an email.  I guarantee this won't last long.  Pergo flooring throughout but if you need to change it the bank is giving you a $2000 allowance for new flooring at closing.  Use or not, it's yours.

6/2/2010 The hits just keep on comin'  Everything was booked with renters over the long weekend but that didn't stop shoppers from beating the doors down.  Wrote one contract for sale on my day off!  Had three more serious inquiries on condos we have for sale and will be tending to those in the next two weeks as people arrive from the midwest, Georgia and Tennessee to eyeball some of our listings up close.  Hurricane Season?  Hurricane Season doesn't officially start till I say so.  Let ya know when.  Last year they predicted all kinds of crazy storms would hit us....we got.....zero, nada, zip, nuttin honey.  Who predicted zero?  While the so called self appointed experts said 8-12?  You know who.  2010?  I'm thinkin bout it, will letcha know soon enuff.  And, how bout this?  Gail, a broker across town working a deal with me right now on one of my listings said she was talking to a broker friend of hers in Jersey I think she said, and that friend asked her if she knew Ronnie?  She said yes, why and how on earth do you know him?  to Gail's amazement this broker in Jersey said she follows my comments right here on  the market and other important issues worthwile pondering.  Gail said she couldn't believe it!  I of course, was not surprised.  Anybody who wants to keep up with what's happening now instead of yesterday keeps up with this report.  The big chain brokerage houses in the area think I am just dirt on their floor but tell you what, this dirt goes to the bank with money instead of to get money.  We work under the radar getting our folks the best deals possible whether they are buyers or sellers.  That is how we have grown our business.

I see a new stalemate coming which occured over a year ago.  Buyers won't go higher, sellers won't go lower.  Standoff.  Happens every year or so and I smell one now.  Many of the obvious bargains have been cleared out and those "wishing" they could sell are asking a wee bit too much and those "wanting" to sell already made deals.  However, there are a few deals out there for buyers if they have us looking under rocks for them, we know where the good ones are cause we're scratching sniffing and looking under rocks every day.  Buyers who "would like to buy" won't quite go over the edge while those who "want to buy" already did.  There's a huge difference between wishing to and wanting to.  Kind of like maybe and will, or probably and maybe.  One thing for sure when the client says:  "let me think about that and I'll get back to you"  throw the damned file away, that is a polite goodbye over and out.  The file will be on the your desk a year from now because they thought about it and forgot about it simple as that.  RT

5/28/2010  Memorial Day edition:  Dusty Dancy in our office put two more condos under contract this week, both at Ocean Village Club and people are all over Barefoot Trace listings we have.  Ocean Sunrise 202 has just been bank approved for short sale at the unbelievable price of $485,000.  Bank will respond to all offers within 72 hours guaranteed.  This is a great buy on a rare unit.  One there sold for 585K just a few weeks ago....okay, it was a 3br but was only 200 sq ft bigger overall....business in general is still holding up quite well to our amazement.  People are still coming from all over the country, still making offers.  We have a closing today on Barefoot Trace 316.  The hits just keep on coming folks!  Skip says I may be my own worst enemy telling how good business is cause sellers and banks are getting tougher to deal with as a result.  The truth is, people are not paying crazy prices, they are shopping carefully and making market price offers, nothing over the top.  Sellers that want prices from 4 years ago have no chance.  Buyers know too much today, besides we have to provide all buyers with accurate and complete info on the entire market there are no smoke and mirror games here, that's only in DC.  National housing numbers are improving big time.  Still.  Told everybody the market turned around in January of 2010.  Will it hold?  I dunno.  RT

5/20/2010  May makes a comeback!  Well, sort of.  We have been very busy since around the 10th showing properties on the beach, closed two more condo deals and have appointments for showings all day today, tomorrow, right on through next week.  Brokers from out of town are driving their clients in to see our listings left and right.  They can't sell stuff where they are but their clients keep talking about condos at Crescent Beach so they load up and bring them.  A few years ago when their business was good they simply referred their friends and clients to us for a cut of the commissions now they come themselves, 50,100, 150 miles and more...one way!  My my, how times change but that's fine we welcome them and pay them if they write us a deal.

I find it interesting how the inquiries shift from one end of the beach to another, price categories, view requests you name it.  And it does follow an interesting pattern if you're into stuff like that.  Right now at the beginning of the busy summer rental season we are seeing people mainly from Florida and Georgia coming in to shop.  They are looking at properties priced 150-200,000 mainly.  They want a view if they can get one but that's a tough order in that price range.  There are a few nice units in that price range and we are concentrating mainly on Ocean Village Club where in our opinion the best deals in that price range are.  You can get a 1br flat or 2/2 for less than 200.  They have two pools, one oceanfront, one centrally located that is heated.  Only a couple of buildings there have views and those are in the upper 200s.  But the value is solid for the dollar in our opinion and apparently our shoppers agree.

Another trend we are continuing to see is the age of the shoppers continues in the 50-70 year old range.  Solid credit, cash on hand and people who are what we call "users" they buy for the family to use not as a pure investment or speculation as we saw years past during crazy days.  They also want to know the rental history of the units they are looking at and if the owner doesn't have a good rental history it can hurt.  Being older they want flats, no stairs if possible.  That's tough too.  Many condos are townhouses with internal stairs and stairs to get to the front door but they offer great views so there is a tradeoff there.  Townhouses appeal to younger buyers and younger buyers are still scarce.  Those willing to scale a flight of stairs can get great views and great prices right now.

Barefoot Trace Condos still continues to be a hot item.  We are closing on another one next week and have three for sale right now that are getting shown regularly.  They are all in the low 400s, all oceanfront flats all 1400 sq ft all nice with elevator service and covered parking garage, oceanfront heated pool and more. These are a good value if you are in that price range.

Have prices started going up?  Not exactly.  Actual selling prices are still flat and have been on a relatively flat line for over 18 months.  Asking prices are starting to inch up in certain areas though but we're not seeing a trend just yet on actual closed sale prices.  Sand Dollar is starting to show some price strength.  Buyers are uneasy paying more than the last guy right now and they will be cautious of such until they are convinced prices will not fall any more.  The biggest problem we have is 99% of the country is still dead and the media beats that drum and somebody in Ohio or Michigan thinks the market is dead everywhere like at home.  It ain't dead here!  

Finally, I know I have kept delaying an announcement the real estate collapse is over with at the beach, I have always said show me 3 straight months of positive activity and solid sales and I'll declare the bad times are over.  I would after 5 straight good months, but I am afraid of putting a jinx on it.  We're on a roll.  I promise if sales continue through August I will indeed declare the real estate collapse over with at the beach and then it will be official.  8 months straight is a stretch but we'll see.  All the self proclaimed experts and writers are still saying area code 32080 is the best area code in Florida this year for sales of existing properties.  Imagine that, guess where area code 32080 is?

A word about oil on the beach....I've been walking up and down this beach for more than 50 years.  I had old timers tell me the globs of tar that washed up was from the freighters and liberty ships that were sunk by U boats in WWII right off our beaches.  Those still wash up sometimes but most of those old shipwrecks have finally collapsed.  I dove a many of them back in the 80s when they were still intact....not anymore they have virtually dissolved.  That happened sometime in the mid 90s roughly 50-55 years after they sunk.  We've had oil slicks float in onto the beach from time to time but not in a very long time, been years.  Now, today everybody is going to go nuts if they see a thimble full of oil on the beach.  I have to agree with Rush Limbaugh who said the other day:  the oil spill in the Gulf is the fault of our government!  He says there is plenty of oil in less than 1000 feet of water off our shores but the government made BP go so far offshore to drill it is a mile deep....things happen and at that depth a fix is tough as we are witnessing.  In shallow water the problem could have been fixed in a couple of days had it occured at all.  I think he has a point. I also think BP may be guilty of negliagence if the 60 Minutes interview with one of the survivors is correct about a fight between a BP engineer and the drilling company over some seal problems.  No, I am not worried at all about the gulf stream bringing oil to our shores, it is 45 miles off St Augustine and it ain't coming here even with an east wind blowing for days, ain't gonna happen.  South Florida is a different story from the keys to Vero the gulf stream is very close to shore then starts angling east as you move north.  35 miles off Daytona, 45 off St Augustine, 55 off Mayport.  That is why hurricanes don't get us too.  RT

5/2/2010  May doldrums are setting in....just as I suspected and just like every year May has brought an end to the frenzy of the first 1/3 of 2010 sales.  We have a few people fishing around but nothing urgent like we had the first four months.  I don't know if everybody is going to catch their breath and come charging back in June or not, we'll see.  Frankly, we need a breather and time to get a couple of deal closed out then we'll start all over in a couple of weeks and hopefully buyers will be back in force like they were in January and Feb.  I checked with a couple of brokers running open houses this weekend on the beach and they all said they were dead.

Here's a different twist for you.  The oil spill.  We already are getting calls from people who had places rented on the Gulf from west Florida all the way through Alabama and Mississippi.  They are fleeing big time and trying to book here now.  If you are a renter on the Gulf coast better start calling today, we will fill 100% for this summer guaranteed.  Look for all of east coast Florida to boom this summer in every way.  I hate it at the expense of our western coastal people, this is our worst nightmare for the entire country not just for Louisiana  and points east including west Florida.  Panama City and those beaches for 100 miles in all directions are probably going to be a mess for the next several years.   Thank goodness Obama is in charge and they'll get everything fixed up and straightened out right away.  It's easy right?  Just like Bush should have done in New Orleans, Obama's administration will show you how to fix a disaster quickly huh?  They're probably preparing a press release now that says the Bush administration was the one who let this oil rig get set up in the first place and it is all Bush's fault right?   BP probably really stands for Bush Petroleum, wonder if they thought of that one yet?  Remember you heard it first right here on WCBR the station that knows all predicts all, Ronnie Tumlin.

p.s. seriously, betcha 5 to your 1 that the other oil companies use this as a big excuse to raise gas prices big time or that the feds will tack on another hefty fuel tax in order to create a federal disaster division dealing with oil spills and will need a couple trillion dollars to fund a standby system of government people waiting for the next one.  Kind of like firemen, they'll get huge tax money and just polish up their boats till an oil spill occurs ....  wait a minute, who says some environmental suicide bomber didn't infiltrate and blow this platform up?  Anybody interviewed any of the survivors?  Has an explosion like this ever occurred on its own, ever?  Land or sea in the last 40 years?  Think about that a little while.

4/22/2010  I can't stand it!  I had to rush right back in here and gloat.  The Fla Assn of Realtors just released this news bulletin this afternoon exclaiming a 24% jump in existing home sales for March 2010 over last year....and get this....68% jump in condos state wide.  I feel like Rush Limbaugh most of the time.  Told ya'll so.  The news world is just now figuring out that business in 2010 is increasing big time.  Ronnie Told you that in January....90 days ago....my favorite rule rings true once again.  By the time the general public and the news media figures out the train is leaving, it will have already left the station.  You want to know what's going on and when its going on instead of reading about it two months later?  Keep up with meeeee.  Told ya'll so.

Now, here's some really alarming news about the health care bill.  I just got an email with a newspaper article in it that said buried within the health care bill just passed is a SALES TAX ON REAL ESTATE SALES NATIONWIDE!!!!   I find this difficult to believe and I am trying to verify but this newspaper article just now circulating amongst realtors nationwide says the bill says there will be a tax on all homes and property sold nationwide at the time of sale of 3.8%   In other words if you sell your house for 300 thousand the federal government is going to charge you a transaction fee of $11,400 !   Comes right out of your pocket right on the spot.  If your house sells for 500 thousand the feds will charge you a sales tax of $19,000.  This is on top of the capital gains taxes.  Same sales tax will apply to a second home, vacant lot, commercial property you name it.  Florida currently charges 0.7% on all transactions so that will move the sales tax on property sales of all types in Florida to 4.5% and there's not a damned thing you can do about it.  Still love the health care bill?  This is just the tip of the ice berg if it is true, Scotland Yard is going to have to come in here and investigate how many other hidden taxes are in there, the FBI is shut out I am sure.  Grandma has to sell her house and move into a nursing home and she is going to have to pay 4.5% sales tax on her house sale no matter her income or the price of the property.  Stay tuned as when words continue to get around this will surely cause a stir if true.  It will hit every person in the country in the wallet big time over time.  Sellers will build it into their price and buyers will end up paying it.  Scarry. (update the next day:  I now an told by a liberal registered bona fide died in the wool democrat who is a friend that the tax does not apply to the first 250,000 in profit if you sell your homestead, 500K if married.  I asked if the tax applied to the profit or gross sales price on other properties like second homes, businesses, farms and the like.  Didn't know but will get back to me.  I can see it now, every home in America will sell above board for $249,999 and the buyer will have to pay 300 grand for a dining room table left behind in the house or no deal.)  Accountants will never ever run out of tax return work...never ever.

4/20/2010 Beach Condo Business continues to boil:  I am so close to declaring the funk of the past three years is over I can't stand it.  Four, count'em that's four straight months of high activity even by 2005 & 6 standards.  And I mean people actually buying and writing offers, negotiating back and forth.  Buyers are not rolling over and taking property at any price, they are still careful and look hard but they are still writing up the contracts.  I suspect there will be more huge announcements by the Administration that the market has turned and is going full steam ahead!  I still think we are an island in the sea of uncertainty.  But we are a good island that people are wanting to come to and stay on instead of sailing farther south into the hinterlands of repos and auctions.  In the past couple of weeks we have put 4 more condos under contract...four!  That's a bunch, more than one a week which is pretty good.  Our total is now 15 for the year averaging almost one a week which is huuuuuge.  Latest contracts are on an Ocean Village Club and an Anastasia by the Sea, we have a couple of offers out there flapping around on other condos that haven't been accepted yet.  This is fun!  Why?  Ronnie ain't asking no questions, just stay tuned.  Right now, I don't care if that horse is wearing dentures.

Best deals right now?  How bout an ocean village club second floor oceanfront fully furnished for $269?  deal deal deal....I called deal on a third floor at 282 last month and it sold in ten days....same thing here.  Call us or email us now:  sales@crescentbeachrealty.com

Political commentary:  Ronnie Tumlin agrees with Obama and Pelosi?  VAT  the value added tax is being kicked around in Washington.  Ronnie actually finds nothing wrong with that if they will simply lower the income taxes.  Do you have any idea how many gazillions of dollars in commerce is conducted tax free on the internet?  Ebay? flea markets?  yard sales?  waiter tips?  cash deals under the table?  drug deals?  None of that stuff is taxed, zero.  People operating under the radar of the tax man pay zero.  They now say roughly 50% of Americans pay no taxes.  I know people making six figures a year off internet sales that skate tax free.  They have it all figured out.  I know people on unemployment making thousands a month under the table...no taxes.  With the national sales tax at least we would get something when they spend that money.  Kind of like the lottery.  I would betcha over 50% of all lottery tickets, scratch tickets and the like are bought by people who pay no taxes, the lottery is a great tax on those folks.  Walk in any 7-11 and just watch who buys the scratch tickets like bubble gum..... along with a pack of weeds, six pack, bag of chips then off they go in a clunker blowing smoke down the road having a big time getting 12 miles to the gallon (lots of gas tax too).  At least we scarfed up a few bucks thru the lottery tickets and weed taxes, alcohol taxes, gas tax which is pretty biiiig.  Same thing with VAT except I suspect the democrats will try to give "poor" folks some kind of VAT rebate every year before its all over, so they will continue to skate free while we workin folks will pay another 5% tax, in fact you can book it Danno, that's what Ronnie predicts will happen when they enact the VAT.

3/24/2010  Appraisal services makes big huge announcement!  Just today local appraisal services (that's the appraiser's assn) announced that sales were up an astounding 37% over last year so far this year!  Like that was some big news story, the papers are picking up on it and everybody wants to know what's going on at the St Augustine area beaches?  Imagine that.  If those clowns simply kept up with meeeeee, they would see business took off first of January and is still going good.  This goes in my "I told you so file"  by the time the so called experts figure out the market is getting good the train will have already left the station ...  with Ronnie wearing the engineer's hat!  p.s. they also made the announcement that prices weren't rising but holding steady for the past 12 months....now what genius figured that out?  another one for the Ronnie told you so a loooong time ago file.

What will the health care debacle do to the real estate market?  So far, nothing.  I will say this.  My wife and I pay roughly 30,000 a year for health care, we are self employed and 60.  We are getting killed by the prices but we can get help when we need it and quickly.  Okay I hear you, no way you pay that much...yes we do.  Nearly $12,000 a year in premiums with $20,000 deductible for the two of us.  If anything happens, anything at all, a kidney stone, a trip to the emergency room, a broken bone, we instantly are in for 30 grand for the year and the 80% applies to everything after that so it can go higher.  In December last year I was feeling really lousy and went for a check up, the blood tests revealed "A typical cells" and Mayo Clinic went into high gear.  Ran some extensive and expensive tests over the next 7 days but yielded nothing....except piece of mind when the final word from the head of the urology department told me face to face "I can find nothing wrong with you, you're too fat but all your vitals are perfect, the scans revealed nothing (they even went in with a TV looking around inside), the probes revealed nothing"  I instantly felt better and it was worth every dime out of pocket which was substantial.  I am now quite certain that kind of instant care will not be available in 5 years for me, my family or you.  They want to talk about European health care.  Let me tell you a quick story.  Wife and I were skiing in Austria many years ago, she fell and broke her knee!  The knee mind you.  A couple of kids from South Africa helped me carry her half a mile by hand to the car, no ambulances for such a thing.  We drove to the Kitzbuhl Clinic just as the doctor was closing up for the day.  He said "come back tomorrow when we are open"....the good news is an orthopaedic intern was with our group and he asked if he could use the clinic to treat Suzanne.  The doctor said sure, go ahead just lockup when you leave....so help me that's the truth.  They had no xray machine but we did manage to find some materials to make a cast, went to a nearby drugstore and got some crutches and drugs.  By the time we got back to the states a few days later her knee was beyond repair and she limps today with a bad joint that will probably need replacing one of these days.  That my friends is the kind of clinics I fear we will have here 10 years from now.  The doctor will say "I'm going home, come back tomorrow and wait in line"  All you have to do is hang around an emergency room nowadays and watch.  I went in a few years ago with a huge fish hook stuck through my hand and had to wait 30 minutes while the doctors fooled with some teenager with a sprained ankle who walked out after they wrapped it with an ace bandgage, the parents didn't pay a dime.  You want to talk about pissed off?  That was me.  Anyway, I hate the health insurance companies worse than anybody.  Over the last 40 years they have made big money off me and family...big money, I keep track of what I pay in and they pay out every year.  A few years they lost money but over the long haul they have made a fortune and as we have approached 60 it is obvious they are trying their best to price us out of the system because we might have health problems starting about now.  I totally agree something has to be done, but to throw 90% of Americans into a goliath system where half won't pay a dime will absolutely result in a dillution of health care options kind of like they dumbed down the education system in this country over the past 40 years.  The good news?  I have joined a gym and never have planned on living past about 75 anyway.  RT

3/17/2010 March still on a rollllll!!!  I know, I know....I've always said show me 3 straight months of solid sales and I will declare the depression over.  I lied.  I cannot bring myself to believe this is a real recovery.  We got three more contracts in this week on units for sale so there is no sign of a pullback yet.  We got another deal done on another Summerhouse, another deal is cooking on Barefoot Trace and another on Ocean Village Club.  Absolutely scarey.  If you followed my prognostications issued over the past ten years I always say the market will take off and be out of the building before the media knows it, they simply go by statistics on what happened a couple of months ago, kind of like the weather man he always tells you what happened yesterday.  If this condo train has pulled out of the station (which it appears to be doing) the media won't have a clue....or perhaps they are just now sniffing something is afoot.  The newspaper said today that Miami had seen a dramatic uptick in condo sales in January and February.  Imagine that....next they'll announce this huge revelation that condo sales are picking up all over in beachside communities.  We already know that too.  Then they will say despite a big increase in sales and pending contracts, prices are still flat....  Told you that a year ago.  Here's what they have no clue of what is going on.  Buyers are picking off the best stuff at these flat lining prices...the mediocre units are not selling, only the best.  Sellers who own mediocre units will get the notion that theirs will bring these prices too....not happenin' captain.  I always say a buyer with enough money to buy oceanside property is smarter than the average bear and he/she knows what's the best stuff and they know what the price should be and if they can't make the deal at the price they want, they move on and look for another one and so far, there are still a few "other ones" to choose from.  Only when those all dry up will prices start to move up.  I'll come back with our best picks for deals in a day or two, let me get these deals nailed down first then I'll have time to be more philosophical.  Predictions:  I am a loss for words right now, people are still coming from the north complaining about the terrible winter up there and are still looking to get a toe hold down here before prices do start up but I truly don't see prices starting up in the near future.  Demand is there for sure, but supply is there too...still.  The good news is, if people really need to sell there are finally a few buyers out there scratching and sniffing. 

Best buys in their own perspective categories:   

Seaside at Anastasia Condos  1448 sq ft 3/2  $210,000

Sea Place Condos oceanview townhouse, pretty nice with a good view  $250,000

Barefoot Trace new 2nd floor listing #202  oceanfront flat good rental history $424,900

Creston House unit 3d, three balconies two on the oceanside, good views  $229,000

Spanish Trace Condos  2/2 oceanview nice unit, nice views...under $260,000

Summerhouse oceanview 2/2.5  furnished with good rental history $289,000

Spyglass townhouse at Crescent Beach with attached garage, rare offering and a good price at under $300,000

Pierpoint South, oceanfront flat ground floor great views big patio oceanfront  under $300,000

Crescent Sandpiper at Crescent Beach drastically reduced under $350,000 this is 250,000 below a few years ago

Ocean Gallery, nice oceanviews, flat, oceanfront balcony this is a top floor unit for less than $400,000 !!

Sand Dollar Condos several for sale in the upper 500s some are very nice and on upper floors with superb views

We believe these to be the best buys right now for the money but this does not take into account whether you like the complex or not, some people would rather not own one than get one at the Sandcrab Condo at half price.

Till next time, Ronnie Tumlin

3/10/2010 March shaping up to be three good months in a row!  We are still on fire and nobody knows why for sure but I have my own ideas.  Crescent Beach and St Augustine Beach are still the best beaches on the east coast all things considered.  Kids love it, teen agers love it, old folksk like me love it.  Not too crowded but busy enough you don't feel like you're on a desert island.  If you want total seclusion go down to the extreme south end of the island, no cars allowed any more and most are too lazy to walk the half mile around the corner of the end of the beach where there's nuttin but a few birds and an occasional hard core fisherman.  We are closing on another Barefoot Trace Condo tomorrow, just put another Summerhouse under contract over the weekend.  Buyers are getting good deals and sellers are getting some needed cash and Ronnie might be able to afford a vacation this year.  Life is good.  The Summerhouse is the first townhouse we have sold in quite awhile but just as I predicted, it took young people with a good income and that was precisely the case.  Rush Limbaugh knows what the democrats are going to do before they do it and Ronnie Tumlin knows what buyers are going to do before they do it.  Perhaps I should have my own show?  I'm good as Kramer guaranteed.

People are still asking me when the market will turn?  It already has just like I have preached for years.  The news media does not know it has turned till it has turned and left the station.  Just a couple of days ago the Jax newspaper reported the statewide real estate market was still down and dead except for one area code....32080....guess where that is?

The market has turned big time and is still running but here's the catch.  The buyers are still paying the same prices they paid a year ago only now they have figured prices aren't going down any more and they'd best make their deals now before prices start going up.  When will prices go up?  That's another story.  When the supply dries up plain and simple.  today we have over 200 condos on or near the beach for sale a year ago it was over 400.  I want to see it at 100 then the prices will go up.  Might take another couple of years.  Too many people who bought 15,20,30 years ago are thinking about selling because their portfolios have gone in the crapper, their living expenses are way up their income way down or zero.  There are lots of those on this beach and they will supply the demand for at least another year.  I think most of the bank jobs and short sales are getting flushed out.  I see fewer and fewer on the beach now.  BUT  here's something I have found interesting.  I have clients flying in from extreme south Texas tomorrow wanting to totally relocate and coming with check in hand.  I have been looking at houses in the 500-800 range and I am astonished at how many are short sales.  Roughly 1 out of 4!  Why?  I have noticed many of these are owned by real estate related people who have to bail and relocate or move into something much smaller and cheaper.  Builders, brokers, agents, mortgage brokers, construction people and the like.  Tough times for us good times for buyers wanting nice places near the beach for a good price.  What about Ronnie you ask?  I am okay, my wife and I paid cash for everything we own always have except for the current house on the beach, we had to borrow a couple hundred back in the 90s but paid it off during the boom instead of speculating.  No, we weren't smart we were scared to stick our necks out too far.  We are older than most in this business and remember hard times way back and stories our grand parents told about the great depression.  No market is invincible so us squirrels did okay in the loooong run, and the grass hoppers that were greedy, got squashed.  Some sellers are being totally responsible I find, they are bringing checks to closing or taking way less than what they paid and they say "that's speculation" they tell me they win some they lose some.  I wished everybody had that attitude we would all be a lot better off.  I think we all have felt for generations that your home and property were always going to be worth more down the road.  We found out there are exceptions to every rule in 2008, write it on the wall.

Some of our constituents raise eyebrows when I tell them we are so busy there aren't enough hours in the day right now.  I think that is because we have stuck to beach properties on the island and our time has come and we were prepared.  We know where the deals are, we have a few left for sale, we had the groundwork done when the buyers showed up.  By the time other brokers wake up and realize buyers are out there in droves Elvis will have already left the building.  Luck is nothing more than proper preparation for the inevitable.  We were prepared and continue to be so, not going to rest now.  We have already sold as many condos this year as we did the entire year of 2009 and 09 was "shrug your shoulders, cock your head sideways, and say fairrr..."  Now you're a realtor!  Call me let's get something going if you are a buyer or seller or looker or just thinkin bout it.  The people who bought the Summerhouse came in here last week just to look, wound up saying this place is better than we thought and the prices are better than we thought so they did it.  Let me help you do it.  RT   904-471-9696  or email me at:  ronnietumlin@gmail.com

3/2/2010  February wound up being a very good month! We closed 5 deals and now have 5 more pending!  Absolutely phenomenal.  Most of these deals are at market price.  Not asking prices but market prices which means what they should sell for in this economy.  We have had many sellers realize a buyer in hand is better than a looker making his plane tomorrow morning.  That's an old joke in our business.  When a looker says he's leaving in the morning and wants to look at stuff today, forget it.  He never does anything just wants something to do.  EXCEPT.....see, Ronnie never assumes anything....after 16 years in this business full time I had some really nice people from Michigan come in one morning a few weeks ago and asked to see some oceanfront listings that I thought were good deals.  They said they were flying back home day after tomorrow.  I said okay.  I never know, so we try to be nice and accommodate every request best we can.  They looked with me all afternoon said they'd talk to me the next day. They did actually come back and we back tracked at a couple of things they looked at, then lo and behold they made an offer....they flew home the next morning, the offer got a counter offer from the seller and everybody agreed within 48 hours. It took me 16 years but I finally got a looker heading home who turned into a buyer!  Thank you Mike and Gayle.

So, what else is selling?  The three closings were all oceanview or oceanfront flats, the previous two were same thing.  Of the 5 pending all are same thing except one.  We have an oceanview townhouse pending.  Younger buyers.  Us old folks have to pay the big bucks for elevators, younger or tougher older folks can save big bucks if they are willing to climb stairs with groceries, kids, beach chairs, fishin poles, you name it.

Best picks on the market right now?  Houses and lots at Marsh Creek Country Club are still my first pick for traditional housing but there are a few cherries a block or so off the beach in some older beachside areas that are real sleepers.  I have clients coming in from the West Coast looking at such and have discovered some really good deals in the 500-600 range for nice homes with pools in nice neighborhoods and a stone's throw from access to the beach....if you have a good arm.

Condo best picks?  depends on what category.  Ocean views?  Try Creston House 3D for $229K a 2/2 that needs a little work and new furniture but it has good bones and good views and good price.  Summerhouse is starting to get some attention now that a few asking prices have dipped into the upper 200s.  138 is still the best deal there for under 300 and 115 is the best deal for over 300....they are similar but different.  You can get an oceanfront there for under 400 for a dump, mid 400s for a nice remodeled 2/2.  Sand Dollar is now priced in the mid 500s for 3/2 oceanfront upper floor unit.  Not bad.  We have sold all our Barefoot Trace units priced reasonably, hoping to get more listed but sellers are holding tight which helps me know it is a good place to buy.  The best deal on the entire beach right now I have to say is Ocean Sunrise 202.  It is a short sale but man what a unit, absolutely beautiful and spectacular inside...nice 24 foot wide balcony oceanfront, elevator, nice pool area, beautifully furnished...but it has one catch-rentals can only be 30 days or more which limits rental income but if you don't care about rentals this is the best deal on the entire beach in its category.  Call me and let's talk about the short sale parameters, see pics under "our listings"   We just listed a Four Winds that the owner says "get me an offer, any offer"...J-17 a beautiful 2/2 townhouse...asking price is 249K...close to the beach and heated pool but no views....but remember, seller says "get me an offer, any offer"...could be a steal if somebody steps up to the plate and can close fast.   We have another similar ground floor at Tradewinds number 81, it is rented all the time and hard to show but the owner says "get me an offer....pulleeeeze"  could be another steal waiting for the right buyer who will pull the trigger.  Ocean Village Club, we have two in the Q building, one is 399 one is 349...that is the oceanfront building both are second floor flats with elevators (one has a better view than the other one...that's why).  We also have a ground floor corner really nice inside for 139K 1/1 that is a good deal too, number M-17 see our listings on that one.  Folks, the best deals and steals are being picked off by buyers from all over the country, recent shoppers we have had are from Boston, DC area, Ohio, Texas, California, Chicago.  Do you think the crazy weather has anything to do with it?

Today's political commentary by Ronnie:  Now I got nuttin gainst tree huggers, but some are nuts and do really stupid stuff.  A few years ago the State 4 laned A1A through St Augustine Beach and they built all these islands to separate traffic.  But the state let a bunch of wackos dictate what kind of vegetation to put on the islands.  It was the ugliest conglomeration of "native plants" you ever saw.  Looked like hell.  Scraggeldy bushes that looked like they were dead when they were alive, wax myrtles that are scrub bushes from the swamps, then they put junipers for ground cover and scattered bark around...oh yes, they added a few cactus from the nearby sand dunes....I looked at that mess and shook my head thinking these idiots have created an eyesore for the sake of natural vegetation and the upkeep pulling weeds will be enormous....it wasn't 3 months before they had briars, bahaia, damned lions, (that's what I heard a little kid call dandelions one time, an old family joke) and all kinds of yuck growing amongst the junipers and ugly bushes.  Not a flower in the bunch.   Road crews risked life and limb out there pulling weeds every couple of weeks.  Now, after 4 years of this nonsense somebody with half a brain has dug all that mess up and DOT has planted palm trees in the medians, looks like a couple of crepe myrtles on each end, and looks like they will sodgrass the rest.  For ten cents Ronnie could have told them that's what they should have done in the first place, but nooooo some environmental wackos got hold of the planting plans and got DOT to do the native vegetation thing....my taxes wasted again by environmental wackos.  This perfectly demonstrates what will continue to happen on a national scale if we continue to be complacent and let the wackos take charge like they have done.  If you want people with grape vines for hats, sandals and sheets for clothing running our country this is what they will do and have been doing.  This year, go vote for somebody with some brains, let all the wackos go to, stay in  San Francisco and leave us alone. 

Oh, one more thing for Ronnie's School of Real Estate and Dumbunnies in the Media:  Just last week headlines on the business page read all over the country:  New Housing Sales Hit All Time Record Lows in January    I told my wife I don't even have to read the article to know where that came from.  What planet do these reporters live on?  The story went on to say how new housing sales were at an all time low well below last year and everything for builders was dismal and the sky was falling.  Of course it is!  Nobody is building new spec houses!  How the hell can you sell new houses if there are none to buy??????  People can buy used houses cheaper than new ones so who wants to buy a new one anyway? Duhhhhh.  It's like saying Oldsmobile sales are dismal and the outlook is bleak.  The articles never mentioned the lack of new housing starts, just that new housing sales were in the toilet.  Who pays these people to write stories?  RT

2/17/2010  February has sputtered but people are still shopping!  Two months in a row now.  No, I wouldn't send up skyrockets just yet but we are still busy.  Not like January, that was like 2005, but we are comfortably busy showing properties and actually wrote two contracts this week and are expecting a third.  Now whether any of them get accepted or not is another story but at least there is a story here.  The lookers are all over the board, one lady shopping under $100K but she has cash, more folks from Michigan looking oceanfront condos, another man from central Fla wanting to back up a contract we have flapping around with contingencies...he has cash wants to close quickly and is willing to pay a wee bit more for a nice oceanview unit if the original buyer starts sputtering.  My constituents are showing things too but I think we have a leg up on most brokers right now because we have the best priced units on the beach.  Aw, you're just saying that, typical salesman.....here's the skinny.  While other brokers were sitting around complaining about no business the last year we have been busy getting listings that nobody else wanted.  Listings cost money, are a pain in the neck, require regular maintenance and nothing was selling so the lazy brokers didn't want listings or took them just to be polite. We have been aligning ourselves for just such an upturn that we have seen since Christmas.  By the time other brokers wake up we will be somewhere else.  Of those 7 deals we had pending on 2/5 one has already closed a Barefoot Trace that sold at $400,000 cash terms. The other six are still alive and like I was saying, one of those now has a backup.

Quirks Feb 2010  Here's one for you, we have one Sand Dollar under contract scheduled to close next week.  It was unfurnished in bad shape not even appliances but one hearty soul wanted one and is willing to undertake a major renovation project here.  Good for him, he got a great price and now has a good job.  We have a second one that is a short sale pending and I have my doubts. That being said, there are 6 Sand Dollar units for sale currently with the cheapest one now standing at $569,000.  This is a hundred thousand dollars above a year ago.  Only 6 for sale out of 300.  That's 2% a very low percentage related to the past two years.  Why?  I think most of the people who were upside down have sold and those units have been purged from the system.  This is what needs to happen throughout the real estate industry.  Whichever areas flush out the distressed properties first, will be the first to recover.  St Augustine Beach and Crescent Beach were thought to be recession proof by all the experts (like meeee).  We were wrong, we took the big dive like everybody else.  We were the last to sink, perhaps we will be the first to surface.  We are still a niche, a unique area so to speak.  People still want to be here instead of highrise country south of us and instead of the frozen tundra just north of us.  I actually had a guy come in the other day who said he could get a better deal at Myrtle Beach.....duhhhhh.....Myrtle Beach from November till May you don't even need a freezer just throw the steaks and beer out on the patio.  Which reminds me of a good one...true story now....many years ago when I went snow skiing regularly in Colorado, I picked up a couple of friends in Denver who lived there.  One of them after getting in the car said wait a minute....ran back into his apartment and came back with a ball of string.  I asked what's that all about?  He said "the refrigerator."  We had a place on the second floor of a hotel on the slopes.  He ties this string to his beer bundle and throws it overboard into a snowpile....simply reels it in when he wanted a cold one off the balcony.

Meanwhile, back at the beach-I still feel an undercurrent of enthusiasm amongst buyers.  the biggest problem we have right now is renters....but renters are a good thing for our condo owners.  We are pretty much 100% booked throughout the entire beach in all categories.  Best winter rentals I have seen in 8 years.  I can't get in half the units I want to show people but we have been able to sweet talk renters into letting us into the best deals if we promise they won't get kicked out if the place sells.  Last year I estimate the occupancy at about 60% this year 100%.  I don't know if that means people just can't stand the cold up north any more and finally gave in to spend a few months with us like old times, or if they have decided life is too short to shovel 4 months a year and they came south, economy be damned.  I don't know but they are here and I am glad to see people back at the beach in winter.  Mid February is supposed to be spring but my hibiscus have not shown any signs of new growth at all.  Grandma always said winter is not over until the pecan trees put on new leaves....she said pecan trees just know these things.  Sometimes they green up in Feb, sometimes March....this year it could be April.... they just know...like mocking birds quit singing in July and don't open their mouths till dog days are over.  I know they don't read the almanac, they just know...one day they all start singing and the hot days are over you can book it

Al Gore:  One thing I have found out.  I don't have to worry much about offending liberal tree huggers for fear of losing business.  I am a tree hugger of sorts,  but I am not crazy so.  The crazy so's.....they can't afford to buy property at the beach unless they inherit it.  Global warming....yeah right.  Now some self proclaimed weather expert guy who lives off government grants finally comes out of the closet and admits the data shows no increase in temperatures over the past 25 years!  It doesn't take a scientist to tell me that.  Summers are still hot like when we were kids, but I really think this has been the coldest winter I can remember in Florida.  A buddy of mine called from Palm Beach this week complaining it was 39 degrees when he got on the first tee...in Palm Beach!  We have been in the 50s for what's got to be a record number of days this year.  Where is Al Gore?  He's like a ground hog, buried up somewhere.  He won't stick his nose out till August when its 90 degrees in Manhattan.  And what about all the archeologists running up to some glacier that's been receeding and uncovering all kinds of ancient artifacts, animal carcases and what not....signs of people and animals living above the arctic circle thousands of years ago and preserved mammoths with green grass in their bellies.  I don't think those guys were grazing in Kansas and just wandered 3000 miles north to get swallowed by a glacier over night.  I guess the weathermen 3000 years ago all started hollering global cooling!  How is it today's deserts were once rain forests...the deserts are where all the oil is right?  Sand didn't turn into oil.  Hold it, what about Vancouver and no snow for the olympics?  They are trying to blame global warming for that.  Does anybody remember the winter of 76 in Colorado?  Aspen didn't have enough snow for a good fight.  It was muddy all winter.  Today they've got snow ass deep to a tall indian. Weather changes, always has, always will, with or without Al Gore or Nancy Pelosi.  You didn't think I could go this long without taking a jab did ya?  Call me if you want to buy something or sell....I have the best deals on the beach in most oceanfront complexes....Ronnie Tumlin  904-501-1010 (cell)  904-471-9696  (ofc)

2/5/2010 And the beat goes on.....the enthusiasm for sales carried through the entire month of January believe it or not.  We now have 7 deals pending which is almost scary after doing less than 20 the entire year of 2009.  I'll be tickled if 4 close.  That's because one is VA financing which has become a nightmare and two are short sales which is a bad nightmare.  Sometimes it takes months to get a short sale approved by the lender.  No, I don't blame the lenders for taking so much time, I blame them for doing the financing in the first place but that's what the coach shoulda called before Leroy fumbled the ball going up the middle.  I have been taking my own poll amongst these buyers.  Short sales are a necessary evil and we just have to live with them.

About the buyers:  Who are they?  Is there a pattern?  Yes and yes.  They are aged from early fifties to mid sixties.  They are usually professional business people, medical, insurance, industrial that sort of thing...and retiring government employees.  They all have a steady income stream or they all will have a steady retirement income.  They seem to have cash they have saved for many years.  They keep telling me they don't trust Wall Street any more.  Many are looking to relocate here permanently and leave the "gray north" as a lady from Michigan told me this morning.  She said Michigan has gone "gray" meaning manufacturing is at a standstill, mills are closed or closing, ( I guess kind of like the rust belt before it rusted I guess) there is no work so they might as well be unemployed in Florida and be able to enjoy the amenities we have all year.  Makes sense to me.  Maybe if enough people leave, there will be work for those left!

Advice to sellers:  If you want to sell I still think it is a good time to sell and take advantage of the group of buyers who are actually buying instead of people just scratching and sniffing.  I do not think the market will start back up significaqntly in the next 3-5 years we are showing somem signs of life but too early to call a trend, it is still in a funk it is still flat lining.  Some people tell me "prices are still falling!"  wrong....asking prices are falling...getting prices are still the same they were a year ago.  There's a big difference between asking price and getting price.  Ask a car dealer these days.  Buyers are not exhibiting an urgency to buy, they are simply feeling it is a good time to buy.  They are making what they believe are reasonable offers and if the seller won't take it they walk away simple as that.  I had a buyer with cash make a true market value offer last week and the seller had it priced 100K over market.  Seller came back with 50 grand less than asking price and buyer said no thanks and walked, end of story.  Now seller's broker is calling twice a day wanting to negotiate.  Can't,  buyer has gone on to another property and made a deal at "market price."  If you are a seller forget fishing for a big price ain't gonna happen.  We can get you a market price but not 50 grand more...those days are over...the market is flat not rising.  In the early 2000s I could price a new listing 20 grand above one similar that sold last week and get it next week.  Not now.  The market is flat.  Price the property properly and it stands a better than 50/50 chance of selling.  Price it high and hope...it stands a zero chance of selling.  Moses couldn't sell it.

Advice to buyers:  We have lots of properties for sale.  Today there were roughly 200 condos at the beach for sale that are 2 bedrooms or more that is half the supply we had a year ago...but there are still 200 for sale....of those, I would say 10-20 are priced properly and those are the ones you need to look at real hard if you are a player.  We can help you determine which ones are properly priced and which ones are not.  That is what we do.  We give you the facts along with our opinions and let you decide for yourself.  I always have told our sales people, if the customer has the money to buy a property he is plenty smart enough to determine if it is a good deal or not, we simply need to supply him with all the unbiased info we can to help him make the decision, it's just that simple.  Agents don't sell property but they can sure unsell it.  Property sells itself.  Magazine ads don't sell property, newspaper ads don't sell property...property sells itself.  The ads simply draw attention to the property.  If your agent is worth a damn he will point you to the best deals that fit your needs and wants without bias and that's what we try to do.

New properties we think are a good deal 

Ocean Village Club, Q-23 an oceanfront 2/2 in very nice shape that took in more than $13,000 in net rent to the owner last year.  $349,000  that's 50 grand below anything else for sale in the Q building.

Barefoot Trace #216 oceanfront 2/2 1400 sq feet...I mean ocean front!  fully equiped and furnished sleeps 6 comfortably just reduced to $399,000  this is a good deal and owner will possibly finance

Summerhouse #138 at $279,000 is 20 grand under anything else in thebuilding, possible owner financing a nice unit 2br 2.5 ba

Creston House 3D....owner has cut the legs out from under the price...now $229,900 for a 2/2 with very good ocean views this is 20 grand below anything comparable

Ocean Sunrise 202....magnificently remodeled and decorated oceanfront 2/2 with a 24 foot wide ocean front balcony 1400 sq ft this place gets a wow when you walk in the door-  short sale-   make an offer.  This could  be the steal of the year but you won't know what you can get it for unless you make an offer....one catch, this complex does now allow rentals thing  for less than a month at a time.  That can be a good thing for some, a bad thing for some you have to consider all the details like this.....call Ronnie to discuss  904-471-9696

Anastasia by The Sea...2 units a 2 br/2ba top floor corner and a 3/2 ground floor corner.  One is $169K the other $215K.  Just a block off the beach at St Augustine Beach.  This is a good deal for the square footage and location on both units.

Ocean Village Club a 2/2 in the L building second floor elevator access, no views but still in the oceanside complex $159,000 that's a price from ten years ago, seller apparently needs to sell bad...call me on that one, not our listing.  Ronnie 904-501-1010 (cell)

Prediction for Feb 2010  I have no clue what will happen.  I have seen a distinct drop in lookers and inquiries the last few days, but it is liable to crank right back up again but that's easy to do when the engine ain't runnin.  I'm till a weather man, maybe it will maybe it won't.  50% chance business will get better this year.  I have another 6 or 7 potential buyers out there anticipating making a purchase within the next 6 months.  That will be my barometer and wind sock.  If people begin to believe our country will be okay then it will be, right now too many people are fed up with Washington and Washington still isn't listening.  Did you see today that the U.S. credit rating is being down graded by world banks?  We have been the benchmark for 100 years, now in one year they are down grading us saying government spending is creating too much debt the U.S. cannot pay back.  I have been waiting for higher interest rates to start....I swear the fat lady's in the bull pen....if we don't get those clowns in Washington to quit pissin money away...we ain't gonna like the notes that fat lady's gonna sing.  RT

1/24/2010  The new year is looking HAPPIER!!  I swear I don't know exactly what is going on, but there is a feeling of redemption out there amongst the citizenry.  Here is strictly an opinion as I filter feedback from recent buyers.  Let me start first with saying January 2010 has been like 2006 at it's busiest.  We have put no less than 4 properties under contract in the past 12 days, and are negotiating two more!  All our agents are crazy busy.  Other brokers report they are very busy showing properties too.  Today, Jan 24th there are 27 condos listed as "sale pending" on the island, a huge increase over a year ago.  I suspect over half will close within 30 days....1/3 of them are short sales and that is a crap shoot....if we throw those out we still have nearly 20 pending and I haven't even entered into the system one I negotiated last night (that's why I can't sleep too busy making notes so I don't forget to do stuff with 5 deals in the air right now). This is what I am hearing from these people who are shopping and actually making offers for a change (long time coming).  They are telling me they think the market has bottomed out, the stock market is still too volatile and they no longer have the stomach for it everytime Obama opens his mouth the market tanks again, interest rates are artificially low and surely will go up soon.  These buyers are bringing cash....lots of it....nearly every single deal we have written so far this month the buyer either has all cash or has 50% minimum and can get himself a good finance rate. Speculators were the ones borrowing, users have the dough.  These buyers are not speculators, they are users.  They want these properties for retirement closing in fast and they want to lock a deal down now.  They are all telling me, all of them....that the recent Massachusetts election may be the key to slowing down a runaway congress...they are all saying the same thing and trust me on this....I am not yelping about a Republican beating the Democrats in Massachusetts....these buyers are coming from all sections of  the country, all professions....they all are saying they are feeling a breath of relief that mayyyyybe things will straighten themselves out if the congress was simply stalemated and that Senator Brown is the key to that. I'm talking educators, medicals, retirees, both parties.  I feel a mood swing to the positive from people I am talking to in California, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, the Carolinas and the Deep South States including regional residents in Florida.  Not elation mind you, but I feel an undercurrent of the tide starting to stop going out.  Now, let me qualify another thing. These buyers are not recklessly walking in and buying like the mid two thousands, 04,05,06....they are still going straight at the lowest priced listings and comparing very carefully one property to the other but when they zero in on what they think is a good buy they are pulling out their checkbooks.  Some have been eyeballing these properties for months, even a year or two and are now taking the plunge....just in the last two weeks!  An old broker told me a long time ago "perception is realtiy"  the most profound statement I have ever latched on to.  If people are starting to believe things are going to get better then they will.  If a man looks at a property and HE thinks it is a good deal then it is a good deal for him, never mind what other people think.  If a property shows lousy despite the fact it is a relative steal and a looker thinks it is a bad deal cause it looks bad then it is a bad deal, never mind a bucket of paint will change it completely, take him to see something else don't try to convince him otherwise.  Ronnie's school of sales will now close.

Predictions?  I am at a loss.  Imagine that.  This little splurge could crash on its face this coming week or could continue. Sounds like a weather man huh?  50% chance of rain, win win  if it rains told you so, if it doesn't told you it might not.  I do not see prices rising any time soon because there are still huge quantities of short sales and bank repos out there and they are selling, but it is still going to take a long time to flush them out of the system and restore some stability.  I see people picking off the best deals for themselves as what they perceive to be the right fit at the right price.  Today there were 318 condos for sale on the island a reduction of 30% from one year ago.  27 pending an increase of 30% from one year ago.  318 for sale is not a lot when you consider there are over 8000 total on the island...that includes little tiny ones no where near the beach to gigantic ones on the beach....that is 4%....not a lot in the big picture of things.  If there are a hundred houses in your neighborhood that means only 4 are for sale....not bad.  Marsh Creek Country Club a bellweather for homes on the island has 600 houses and I think 26 for sale...that's about 4%.  Swami's final prediction for 2010?   30-30 chance of it being a good year for business.  

What needs to happen to lock in national recovery?  a total stalemate in Washington period.  As long as we have a republican Congress and Democratic administration we will be fine ..... worked good in Clinton years, worked good in Bush years.

Previous prediction results:  I see below I named seven condos as great deals 12 days ago.  Two have sold already and one more I would have put on the list had it been for sale at the time, has sold as well.  Ronnie Tumlinnnnn Gooday!

1/12/2010  Happy New Year....looking back at my utterings from one year ago today, I see that business got off to a roaring start last year the first couple of weeks of January then fell flat on its face.  Same this year so far.  Amazing how trends trend to be the same trends year after year.  In the past 20 days we have been working 14 hours a day showing properties, listing new ones and answering internet inquiries from all over the country.  We have closed two properties, have three contracts pending and a couple more being negotiated.  I just hope we can get half of those to the finish line.  We are still seeing and hearing from other brokers the same story.  We get the deal on paper after a week of haggling over the prices and terms then three weeks later the buyers gets cold feet and walks.   But, such is the nature of the business and we deal with it.  All of a sudden we are getting inquiries about condos on the beach and potential rental income.  Hasn't been the mode of inquiries the past six months.  I hear Obama has directed Fannie and Freddie to start buying condo loans again after over a year's hiatus which should make it easier for people to get condo financing.  But that's what got us into trouble the past 5 years....the difference hopefully is that they won't loan people money who can't make the payments...we saw that right here on the beach time and time again.  I think we could bundle up all the "short sales" up and down the beach and find 70% of them belong to 30% same group of owners.  Speculators bought multiple properties they couldn't afford to pay for long term and when ratios of loans to value got out of whack they bailed and stuck the banks.  How could dumbbunny Ronnie see that freight train coming and the banks ignored it.....they got runned over huh?

Ronnie's best deals picks January 2010: Summerhouse 138 oceanview 2/2.5 for $279,000          Ocean Village Club L-22 a 2/2 for $159,000 now that's cheeeeeep          Creston House 9D  2/2 oceanview $279,000         Barefoot Trace oceanfront #216 $420,000        Sand Dollar oceanfront ground floor 3/2 (bank owned) $449,000      Ocean Sunrise oceanfront 2/2 #202  $549,000     Spanish Trace oceanview 2/2 superb views and condition $255,000 that's cheeeep for the view and conditions

Observations:  I am amazed there are currently NO vacant lots for sale east of A1A at St Augustine Beach....prices shot up to as much as $500,000 for a 50 foot lot not even on the beach then sunk back down to a low of $175ish and now none are for sale.  Several owners pulled them off the market and some sold.  None available now...hmmmmm.  Sand Dollar condos dipped down into the high 300s for selling prices and asking prices in the mid 400s....now, they're all upper 500s...except for the one bank repo and I expect that one to sell pretty quick.  Call me on it 904-501-1010.  All of a sudden a handfull of Atlantic East units are popping up on the market....that usually means something when none are for sale then a bunch out of nowhere...special assessment looming on the horizon.  What do we have pending now?  St Aug Beach and Tennis 3/2, a riverfront modular, a vacant lot and still dickering this afternoon on another oceanview condo.

2010 Forecast:  Partly cloudy same as 2009 until the political climate changes in Washington.  People are through being scared they have taken the wait and see attitude and have hunkered down.  I have commercial properties that people want to rent but are afraid to, fearing unknown future expenses.  We are still handcuffed by ridiculously high real estate taxes.  I blame two entities for that.  Government and Government.  Property appraisers everywhere refuse to acknowledge true values that have sunken 30-40% they are lowering values painfully slow but raised them instantly during boom times....kind of like gas.  They raise the pump prices daily when prices are going up but when wholesale prices fall they leave it up there till the guy down the street beats them by a nickel.  County government has not gone on a diet either.  While private business has cut office help and those left have to double up production, the county has the same number of people doing very little if anything.  Walk in county offices and they're all sitting around talking and taking two hour lunch breaks...it is unbelievable.  Not their fault, that's just the way government works.  And here's another one, I was in a bank the other day and the people in the real estate department were working through lunch and after hours while I watched the other side of the building and they were sitting around chatting then bolted out the door I swear at the stroke of 12 noon to the second. It was almost laughable.  People keep asking me when the real estate market will turn around?  I tell them the better question is when will it stabalize?  Some segments are showing signs of life while others are not.  Condo sales at the beach are getting better for sure, homes in town are doing better too.  Commercial stuff is still crashing deeper and deeper.  Business cannot pay the taxes and rents it takes to stay in business not to speak of expanding.  Property taxes and insurance are killers for small business and continue to kill small business off because landlords have to have more rent than the business can support.  I think that is a bigger problem than federal taxes.  If I sound like a Democrat....then hush my mouth.  I ain't.  RT

Turn out the lights....the party's bout over...where is Don Meredith anyway?  This should be my last communique' this year.  I was right 365 days ago when I told everybody beware....they were all saying they were glad 08 was over, business was so bad.  I said, be careful 09 might make 08 look good.  I was right.  All King Obama's horses and men haven't fixed a thing.  Nada.  Humpty Dumpty is still broken and those clowns are using crazy glue to try and fix him.  I swear, I'd rather see the Keystone cops running congress.  I thought the republicans made big mistakes and spent way too much money.  This crowd we got now makes those guys look like chumps spending chump change.  Be careful friends what you wish for never meant more than it does now. 

I do have to say, we did close one deal last week and are closing another Monday barring catastrophe and a third is on track to close in January!  We have at least half a dozen clients actively looking at condos and houses on the island right now...today....an unprecedented number for this time of the year and they are all saying the same thing.  They think now is a good time to buy and most are in their 40s and 50s even into mid 60s...us boomers I guess.  One guy said he might as well spend his savings on a condo at the beach now like he always wanted cause he figures if he hangs on to the money long enough some politician is going to try and take it away from him.  Sounds good to me.  I am actually going to go out on a limb here making an unusual prediction.  I think we are going to have a good Jan, Feb, March.  I don't know why, I just feel it.  We'll see.   I think prices on nice condos with good rental history is what is convincing me.  A Spanish Trace unit with great views, totally remodeled with good rental history just came on the market at 255K....I just got a similarly nice Creston House for 289K...A Summerhouse for 279K....people can afford these and they are nice!  With good views!  Come back in mid January and see what I have to say.

Ronnie's political predicitons:  I predict the congress will make a total mess out of health insurance.  It is terrible today, and they will make it much worse when the smoke clears.  I think the insurance companies are clicking their heels and hopefully most of us will live long enough to find out.  The election of 2010?  Ronnie predicts the American electorate will have forgotten about all the corruption and mess these clowns in Washington have made and way more will be re elected than the pundits think will be.  Like my buddy Douglas always says:  I don't care if we have a crook in government or not, as long as he's MY crook!  I think everybody will think thier rep or senator is their own crook and will revote for them...is that a word?  revote.  Doubt it.  But you know what I mean.  remember you heard this predicition right here.  I disagree with Dick Morris, I think the voting public is dumb...he says they are smarter than you think...I say not, they're dumber than Dick thinks.  That's why we're in this mess and this mess has been building for the past 20 years.  Happy New Year, let's hope 2010 doesn't make 2009 look like a good year.  Ronnie Tumlin

Stardate: 12/18/09  We're all having a coke!  Time for celebration.  We had a closing today!  It had a 30-30 chance of getting this thing across the finish line but it actually happened and nobody got beat up, thrown out of the back of a pickup, shot or cut.  we took our three thousand dollar check to the bank and the teller asked us "what business is this?"  "And you want to deposit all of it?" then she asked for identification.  The ultimate insult, they used to know our middle names.  Sign of the times, but hey we're just like the Obamacare legislation...nine lives.  Amazing how this business has ups and downs, we were all sky high two weeks ago when three of our agents each had a deal under contract almost like the olden days.  The the trouble started, surveys, termites, wiring, leaky plumbing, missing shingles, half the orange tree hung over the neighbor's property and the neighbor claimed half the fruit, seller's wife was out of town couldn't sign the papers and buyer says friday is the deadline, no sign, no deal.  Had to get Sergeant Preston to find her and overnight the package back, airports closed everybody in a sweat...deals crashing...then a guiding light shone from above, we closed the first deal today, and the other two are back on track miraculously everybody's happy we're opening our last six pack of cokes in the office fridge.  I can remember when we gave 150K deals to each other if we were busy with bigger deals, no big deal.  Today we're scratching around trying to keep 95 thousand dollar deals patched together.  John Wayne told the Indian in Big Jake...."times change"....and do they ever.  Oh yeah, it's raining more good news.

12/12/09  The beat goes on unexpectedly- we now have three properties under contract out of the blue.  And get this, an apartment complex a block off St. Aug beach that was converted to condos 3 or 4 years ago went belly up with the converting developer.  Bank has taken over nearly half the units.  Bank put up 6 units at a time at really low prices under $100K.  The first six sold in a week in November.  Then they released six more first of Dec.  Two are left and one of those has two offers on it and bank will take best bid this monday at 4pm.  Asking price was $65,000 but it was indeed rough and in my estimation needs about ten thousand in work and elbow grease but when that is all said and done $75K for a 2/2 within a block of St Augustine Beach pier and beach?  Pretty unbelievable.  The original developer/conversion guy was selling these things for 300K 4 years ago, he just didn't sell enough of them so he dumped the entire project back in the bank's lap.  I guess stuff like this is why the country is in financial straights.

Ronnie's Friday commentary:  Tiger Woods...enough already!!!  this morning I see some fluzie looking female a whisker on the hefty side for a long lean Tiger and pancake makeup telling the TV people she had been carrying on with Tiger for the past six months!  She went on to say they would go to night clubs and restaurants and people would take pictures of them together.  She was apologizing to Tiger's wife.  Now, folks I ain't no rocket scientist but I can guarantee you this...that was a complete fabrication.  Complete!  She was nothing to be parading around to night clubs and restaurants even in Hong Kong.  And trust me on this Tiger won't even let the guys in the locker room take his picture.  I know that for a fact, a locker room attendant in the most prestigous country club in America told me first hand he begged Tiger for a picture and Tiger said no.  Do you think he would let people take his picture with a bimbo? At a nightclub? If they had, it would be all over the tabloids the next day it would be worth millions.  Ain't surfaced ain't gonna.  Take that one to the bank.  Okay, he might have had a sweetie on the side somewhere, maybe two....but I guarantee he kept'em stashed away pretty good and they looked good.  Like an old buddy of mine who is 76 years old and wise beyond his years told me yesterday:  "With Tiger's money don't think he's messing with any 8's or 9's...they're all gonna be 10-12 on the scale."  He may be stupid but he isn't dumb enough to make the kind of appearances with this band of wannabe's they all claim he did and there is a big difference.  There's too much smoke for there not to have been a fire, but how big a fire is hard to tell and we may never know.  I suspect his wife thinks as much as a cinder is enough huh?  Will Tiger recover?  Dunno.  Kobe made a great comeback, but then again the audience of the NBA is quite different than that of the PGA.  Ronnie Tumlin

12/4/09  I have no idea what is going on...do you? In the past 48 hours we have two contracts accepted on two properties that have both been on the market two years!!!  We have another offer on a lot we've had for sale over two years!  We have another coming (supposedly) on one of our short sale condos we listed last month...all of a sudden....what is going on?  Obama sending more guys to Afghanistan?  BOA paying back their tarp money?  Stock market still rocking back and forth in a 200 point trading range for months on end?  Maybe it's that vampire movie huh?   This is the LAST time of the year you would expect offers and contracts...this is traditionally deadest month of the year.  November was dead I figured Dec would be deader than dead and here we are busy...somebody tell me why so I can make notes.  I know this rare Ronnie Tumlin does not have all the answers but this has caught me by total surprise.  Maybe it's Tiger's girlfriends anticipating windfalls....yeah, that's gotta be it.  One more thing, it started raining today for the first time here at the beach in two months.  Maybe I oughta go fishin maybe I could catch something,I've been skunked the last two trips.  RT  p.s. I'm for sure buying lotto tickets tomorrow morning first thing.  Go Gators.

12/1/2009 Hurricane season was declared over yesterday by the national weather service...imagine that.  I hear some official guy saying it was a rather benign hurricane season this year.  Really?  And just who said it was going to be anything different?  I should be a weather man.  Anyway, we actually put a condo under contract over the weekend and the guy next door says he has a deal working and we have another big piece of vacant land being seriously eyeballed by a group wanting to build apartments.  Business is slow but not totally dead.  More short sales are showing up but the pricing on those short sales has not been significantly lower than just regular bill paying folks who want to sell.  Now I hear Fannie and Freddie are forcing new financing guidelines on condominiums saying they will not buy paper on a condo unless it is more than 50% occupied by permanent residents!  That is crazy for vacation areas like ours.  We have people from all over the country who own these properties as second homes and rent them out when they are not here.  Our government is now discriminating against normal bill paying citizens.  You are probably better off today being a crook.  Stay tuned.

We actually had three offers on properties come in over the weekend but only one stuck.  The two that didn't were so low the sellers wouldn't consider them.  We are only the messengers and sometimes we do get shot at, but at least one of them stuck, now to get it to the finish line that's another story in itself.  I had a hit off the internet wanting info on condos under 200K on the beach side of A1A.  I was a little surprised there were around 20 two bedroomers on the oceanside of A1A for sale under 200K in complexes like St. Aug Ocean and Racquet and Ocean Village Club.  No views, but I told somebody one time if you want to be on the beach side and you want the lower priced units you ain't gonna get a view unless you are a giraffe.  Just figure you save 500 bucks every time you walk down to the beach to see the ocean.  Folks with ocean front (like meee) figure they pay 20 bucks every time they look out the window at the surf.  It all works out.  Want a scary thought?  My property taxes alone, cost me 30 bucks every morning when I open the shutters to see the breakers....and they charge me whether I look or not 7 days a week 52 a year.  It's like flushing  three tens down the toilet every morning never mind the upkeep, utilities and other stuff.  The last time I went and complained about the taxes on my house the guy pushed back from his desk and said "you can afford it" and smiled.  Yeah, I can but that don't make it a good deal does it?

2010 predictions:  Ronnie sez:  Look for more of the same in 2010.  Democrats concocting new taxes fast as they can blow smoke out their pipes, Republicans being polite opposition while us few, us proud, us regular law abiding citizens just sit there and take it.  My wife was right.  OReilly kept saying no way the health care thing would ever get off the ground as late as August 2009.  She said yes it will, the congress will simply wait the protesters out....people will give up squawking about it and they'll pass it and everybody will say oh well, and go on to something else.  She was right and the Democrats understand human nature better than anybody.  Pundits are now saying the senate doesn't have 60 votes to end the debate and bring about a full vote which will pass right?  Wrong.  Ronnie predicts the Senate leadership will peel off at least one or two Republicans with bribes just like Pelosi did in the house.  Yes, I think Republicans will sell out just like the lady from Louisiana did wearing a Republican hat. It reminds me of the auctions conducted by the airlines....the plane is full, no room for some guy who has a ticket at the counter and is raising hell, he's gotta get there.  So the nice lady comes on the plane and offers a 50 dollar voucher if you give up your seat and take the next plane...nobody moves.  Then a hundred, then 200....then EVERYBODY stands up....they just wait her out till the price gets right.   I believe the house and senate will tax the working people of this country slap to death and sleep well at night.  There will not be a revolution, we are too busy working to revolt and the recipients of all this will sit quietly and laugh at us.  They are going to make tax dodgers out of an awfully lot of people.  I know people right now who are working under the table making good money and still collecting unemployment and have no problem with doing so...that is just a sign of more to come.  The newspaper today had a front page story about a guy who bought a physical therapy business for 30 thousand dollars last year that usually billed Medicare around 65,000 a year....he billed them 1.5 million the first year of operation.  Got caught, indicted, but guess what?  He left the country...imagine that.  He went back home after collecting over a million bucks from Medicare in fraudulent claims.  He was just a small time operator.  Imagine how many tens of billions get sucked out of the government in fraudulent claims from outfits that are smarter than this guy was?  All they have to do is get real nasty with fraud in medical claims...that's all plain and simple but that won't work cause I guarantee you the people conducting the fraudulent claims also have the politicians in Washington in their back pockets too so the system feeds on itself and we pay.

I predict we will not get hit by a hurricane for the 167th straight year in 2010.  No, no....we got sideswiped in 2004 and 2005 we never took a direct hit...we had minimal damage, hardly any at all. It is like a bowling ball, unless it hits the pocket not many pins fall down. I predict the weather channel will be on beaches all over the southeast in 2010 reporting on the beach erosion and flooding and urging people to evacuate every chance they get but they will not be at Crescent Beach.  I predict gold will not make a huge run in 2010 and triple like the ads say it will.  I predict interest rates will remain painfully low because nobody wants to borrow money and if they do the banks won't be able to lend it anyway.  I predict there will be a huge commercial real estate crash nation wide....who in their right mind would open a new business with today's political climate?  As businesses close none will open to replace them for years to come.  Ronnie predicts the residential real estate market has bottomed out (said so in June 2009) and I predict it shall be flat lining for at least two more years.  I predict if the Republicans do not take at least control of the house or the Senate in 2011 OBama will continue to spend us to death....I predict his rhetoric about the deficit is just that...rhetoric...I honestly believe he has no idea what a budget is or fiscal responsibility is.  He has never had a real job in his entire life and has always lived off the government, he has never written a payroll check in his life.  I think he does not understand period.  He thinks he can just print money all he wants and utopia shall prevail.  I hope he proves me wrong but so far, Rush Limbaugh has been 100% right.  In November 2009 I heard him exclaim "The democrats are in total control folks, they will open the vaults at Fort Knox!"  I laughed.  He was right, they did and still  are carrying off the loot.  It ain't funny any more.

It is kind of like when school teacher's unions started running the schools, all of a sudden the school taxes on your tax bill are the biggest single item on the bill every year now.  Bigger than police, bigger than road funds, fire departments, emergency rescue or anything else including the huge county bureaucracy and a courthouse facility big enough to hold a football game at...the school system is taxing America to death.  Why?  Because they never had to operate within a budget or make a payroll from revenues received via individual hard work.  The money magically appears in the check book every year no matter what, so they spend and spend and keep on spending...why not?  It is a never ending supply of money.  Same thing in today's White House.  OBama has magically had money appear no matter what, he has never had to work for it.  It is easy to spend other people's money and those are the glasses he is looking through.  I rest my case.

Is there going to be a tax payer revolution?  NO.  I think we are all too fat, too old, too soft to want to fight anymore.  They know people over 50 today have had enough and won't fight.  We will lose interest just like we did with the health care thing that raged last summer and is now pretty quiet.  History will teach you everything,  all you have to do is observe and compare to the past.  RT